Newcastle United v Liverpool – key match injuries
The todays injuries tab flags Alexander Isak as unavailable (listed as suspended) — and that’s the headline “key match injuries” angle here. With Isak on the pitch Newcastle have won 59% of games (34 played), but in the 4 matches he didn’t feature that drops to 0% — a swing of +59 percentage points. His presence correlates with higher attacking output: goals for up by +1.72 per game and xG for +0.31, albeit with a small rise in goals against (+0.26) and a negligible xGA shift (+0.01). Entertainment metrics lean the same way: BTTS up by +28pp and Over 2.5 up by +68pp when he plays. On the Liverpool side the todays injuries lists Conor Bradley as doubtful under “key match injuries”: in a small 7-game sample when he’s played, Liverpool’s win rate is 43% versus 71% without him (-28pp), with xGA higher (+0.35) and BTTS up (+31pp). Sample sizes matter, but Isak’s absence stands out as the decisive “key match injuries” factor in this fixture.
Athletic Bilbao v Rayo Vallecano – key match injuries
For Bilbao, Oihan Sancet is marked doubtful among the “key match injuries” and his influence looks positive: when he plays (19 games) Athletic’s win rate is 58% versus 42% without him (+16pp), with xG for up (+0.15) and xG against down (-0.14). Beñat Prados (also doubtful) shows a milder, mixed signal (-5pp win rate difference; tiny defensive improvement). Rayo’s “key match injuries” note is Abdul Mumin (injured): with him in the XI (24 games) Rayo’s win rate is +9pp higher than without, and they concede fewer goals (GA -0.61) with a small defensive xG improvement (xGA -0.02). Net: Sancet’s availability tilts Bilbao’s attack upwards, while Mumin’s absence could soften Rayo’s back line — both meaningful “key match injuries” levers for this matchup.
Sevilla FC v Getafe CF
Sevilla’s list includes Tanguy Nianzou (injured). When he features (6 games) Sevilla’s win rate is 50% versus 22% without him (+28pp). It’s a curious profile: goals for rise (+0.27) and goals against drop (-0.73) with him, even though xG for dips slightly (-0.18) and xGA improves a touch (-0.03). For Getafe, Borja Mayoral is flagged doubtful under “key match injuries”: in the 7 games he’s played the win rate is lower (14% vs 32%, -18pp), with goals for down (-0.40) and xGA higher (+0.35), hinting that his recent minutes have coincided with more open — and less favourable — game states. Overall, Sevilla’s absentee picture suggests a sturdier balance if Nianzou is available, while Getafe’s attack looks blunter if Mayoral isn’t at full tilt.
All figures above come directly from our todays injuries tab https://smartbettingstats.com/today-injuries/ : “Games Played” vs “Games Not Played”, Win%, goals (GF/GA) and expected goals (xG for/against) differences, plus BTTS/Over 2.5 percentage-point shifts.
