Horse Racing Trends and Tips Saturday 4th February 2021

Tips will be posted closer to Saturday

1:15 Caribbean Boy 5/2

1:50 Shan Blue 11/4

2:20 Santini 3/1

3:30 Coo Star Sivola 6/1 Ask Me early 7/4 Calipso Collongnes 14/1

2:05 Ashington 9/2

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

12.40 – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2020 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 13/8

1.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV4

14/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/14 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (4 won)
7/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)6/14 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
6/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/14 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – French bred
4/14 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Dolos (7/2) won the race in 2020

2.20 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

17/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/17 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks16/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – French bred
10/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Aged 7 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/17 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 6 winners)
Itchy Feet (7/1) won the race in 2020

3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV4

16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
15/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
12/17 – Rated 136 or lower
10/17 – Placed last time out
10/17 – Irish-bred
9/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/17 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – French-bred
3/17 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/17 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 7)

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.58 – William Hill Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav


2.35 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 years-old
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/15 – Trained by Ian Williams
Newtide (9/2) won the race in 2020

?? – Paddy Power Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4

Only three previous runnings
2/3 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/3 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Bob Mahler (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2020

3.45 – bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4

12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
11/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Former flat horses
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/13 – Rated between 120-130
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won last time out
Sebastopol (9/2) won the race in 2020