Horse Racing Tips

The Grand National 2024 - Horse Racing Trends and Tips


Only one horse matched all the trends for this years renewal of the grand national, trained by Willie Mullins and carry a very low weight, this seven year old looks sure to go well. Meetingofthewaters beat Panda Boy by 4 1/2 lengths in a previous run this season and Panda Boy has been well fancied for the National in the last couple of weeks. Everything looks perfect for Meetingofthewaters, being a 7 year old its still unexposed and this will have been the aim all year for JP Mcmanus and Willie Mulllins. 


Meetingofthewaters @12/1


Other races on Saturday 13th April - horses that meet the trends


1:20 Cuthbert Dibble 8/1

1:55 Espirit Du Potier 20/1

2:30 Klieg King 11/1

3:05 Flooring Porter 4/1,  Buddy One 18/1

4:00 Meetingofthewaters 14/1

5:00 Found a Fifty 7/4



Aintree Grand National Trends


  • 11 of the last 11 winners ran in a high-profile race last time out
  • 11 of the last 11 winners had run at least 3 times that season
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 11
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had started at least 10 races over fences
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had won no more than two handicap chases
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had their last run in February or March
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were rated 146 or higher
  • 9 of the last 11 winners finished no worse than 5th last time out
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had won or placed over 3m2f or further
  • 8 of the last 11 winners carried 10-13 or less
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won that season
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had never run over the Grand National fences before
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had won a chase over at least 3m



  • 31/32 – Officially rated 137 or higher
  • 30/32 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
  • 28/32 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
  • 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 25/32 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
  • 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
  • 23/32 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
  • 21/32 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 20/32 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
  • 20/32 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
  • 18/32 – Placed favourites
  • 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 13/32 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 12/32 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
  • 8/32 – Won last time out
  • 7/32 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
  • 7/32 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/32 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
  • 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 21 of the last 29 winners aged between 8-10
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 14 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 14 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 20 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 21 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 28 renewals (but 4 in the last 8 years)
  • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 37 years (83 have attempted)
  • 24 of the last 26 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (20 Year)

20/20 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
18/20 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/20 – Officially rated 137 or higher
17/20 – Had won over at least 3m previously
17/20 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/20 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/20 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/20 – Experienced the National fences before
7/20 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/20 – Won their last race
5/20– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/20 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/20 – Won by the McCain yard
2/20 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard


Aintree Horse Racing Trends

SATURDAY, 13th April 2024 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV 

 

9/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
9/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/10 – Carried 10-12 in weight
8/10 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Rated between 131-138
7/10 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/10 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
5/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
2/10 – Trained and ridden by Dan and Harry Skelton
2/10 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
17/20 – Raced 39 days or less ago
17/20 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 13)
12/20 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
9/20 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (8 of the last 12 favs have won)
9/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 12 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
20 of the last 26 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
13 of the last 14 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
19 of the last 25 (76%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 26 (62%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 19 (56%) runnings between them
8 of the last 13 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 27 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 34 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2023 Winner: Irish Point (5/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/20 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
14/20 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/20 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
12/20 – Unplaced in their last race
4/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Favourites that won
3/20 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 13)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 24 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 19 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 46 runnings
9 of the last 13 (69%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 16 winners didn’t win earlier that season
8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 17 winners won last time out

2023 Winner: Midnight River (15/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

16/19 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/19 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/19 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/19 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/19 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/19 – Won their last race
9/19 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/19 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/19 – Irish-trained winners
2/19 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (last two)
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18 of the last 19 (95%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
15 of the last 19 (79%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 19 (74%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 14 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 14 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 8 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-6
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
Just 3 of the last 19 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 2 winners rated below 155 in the last 19 runnings
No 5 year-old winners

2023 Winner: Sire Du Berlais (16/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Mark Walsh

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

        • 31/32 – Officially rated 137 or higher
        • 30/32 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
        • 28/32 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
        • 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
        • 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
        • 25/32 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
        • 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
        • 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
        • 23/32 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
        • 21/32 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
        • 20/32 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
        • 20/32 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
        • 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
        • 18/32 – Placed favourites
        • 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
        • 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
        • 13/32 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
        • 12/32 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
        • 8/32 – Won last time out
        • 7/32 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
        • 7/32 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
        • 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
        • 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
        • 2/32 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
        • 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts and Stats

  • Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore a tongue tie