Horse Racing Stats and Trends Tips - Saturday 20th April

Todays horse racing is from Newbury and Ayr racecourse, it includes a traditional guineas trial in The Greenham at Newbury and The Scottish Grand National from Ayr.

1:15 Persian Time 6/1

1:30 Al Qareem 11/2, Peking Opera 66/1

1:50 Inch House 10/1

2:25 Favour and Fortune 5/1

2:05 Star Music 9/2, Topanga 16/1

2:40 (The Greenham) Zoum Zoum 11/4

3:00 Coco Mademoiselle 4/1

3:15 Navagio 8/1, City of York 28/1

3:35 (Scottish GN) - Beauport 20/1, Ballygriffincottage 16/1, Mr Vango 12/1

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

20/20 – Aged 6 or younger
19/20 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won between 2-5 times before
18/20 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/20 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Had won a Group race before
7/20 – Raced at Newbury last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 9)
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 9
8 of the last 11 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
17/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
17/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Drawn 5 or higher
15/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Had won at Newbury before
7/20 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
5/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/20 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.40 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

19/20 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
18/20 – Having their first run of the season
17/20 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/20 – Won between 2-4 times before
15/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/20 – Had won a Group race before
10/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/20 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/20 – Irish-trained
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners
8 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

3.15 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

20/20 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
17/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/20 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
16/20 – Won over at least 1m before
15/20 – Rated between 85-98
13/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
14/20 – Unplaced last time out
12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/20 – Unplaced favourites
10/20 – Had run at Newbury before
8/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
2/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 9)
2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 4)
1/20 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f ITV

19/19 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Rated between 127-139
13/19 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/19 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
11/19 – Had run at Ayr before
4/19 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 6 years)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV 

12/12 – Aged 9 or younger
12/12 – No more than 3 chase wins
11/12 – French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/12 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
8/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Had run at the track before
3/12 – Winning favourites
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

20/20 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
17/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Rated 135 or higher
11/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/20 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
10/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/20 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Rubaud (7/2 fav) won the race in 2023
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f 

10/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/10 – Aged 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
Sabrina won the race 12 months ago

3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

20/20 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
18/20 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
17/20 – Aged 8 or older
17/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
17/20 – Coming from a different winning yard
16/20 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
15/20 – French or Irish bred
15/20 – Finished in the first three last time out
14/20 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/20 – Had won over 3m or further
14/20 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/20 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/20 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/20 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7 winners and 3 wins in total)
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams (last 2)
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The last two winners won the Eider Chase earlier that season
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1