Horse Racing Trends and Tips - Saturday 6th May

Todays horse racing is from Newmarket and Thirsk, its all flat racing. The big race of the day is the 2000 Guineas (see trends below) with the 1000 Guineas tomorrow. Its the first horse racing classic of the season and two interesting horses meet the trends Dubai Mile trained by Mark Johnston 50/1 and Noble Style trained by Charlie Hills 14/1. We are backing both each way especially seen as most bookies are offering 4 places at the prices.

2:15 Perdika 6/1

2:50 Apollo One 18/1

3:25 Howth 25/1

3:40 Devilwala 33/1

4:00 Equality 11/1

4:40 Dubai Mile 50/1, Noble Style 14/1

Ted (Senior Analyst) - smartbettingstats

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.15 – Howden British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

9/9 – Aged between 3-5
9/9 – Won over 5f or 6f before
8/9 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/9 – Aged 3 years-old
6/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (2)
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 4)
3 of the last 6 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back

2.50 - Howden Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV4

9/10 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/10 - Won 3+ times before
9/10 - Had won over 6f before
8/10 - Didn’t win last time out
7/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 - Carried 9-3 or more in weight
7/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 - Returned 13/2 or bigger
6/10 - Rated 100+
6/10 - Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
6/10 - Unplaced favourites
3/10 - Winning favourites
2/10 - Richard Fahey
0/10 - Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Blackrod won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

3.25 – Suffolk Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV4

16/17 – Had won at least twice before
16/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/17 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
14/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
14/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
11/17 – Rated between 90 and 96
9/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Having their first run of the season
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Irish bred
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 - Winning favourites
2/17 - Trained by Andrew Balding
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 14 runnings

4.00 – Howden Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV4

18/20 – Had won over 5f before
18/20 – Won 3 or more times before
17/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
17/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
17/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/20 – Had run at Newmarket before
14/20 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
14/20– Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/20 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2 runnings)
Just 3 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
5  of the last 7 runnings went to 4 year-olds
8 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)

4.40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV4

21/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
19/21 – Had won over at least 7f before
19/21 – Had won a Group race before
19/21 – Had won between 2-5 times before
17/21 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
17/21 – Won last time out
16/21 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
15/21 – Having their first run of the season
14/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Placed favourites
12/21 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/21 – Irish bred
9/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/21 – Had won over a mile before
8/21 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/21 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/21 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.05 William Hill Epic Value Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100 1m2f ITV4

Just 1 previous running
Moktasaab won the race in 2022 (W. Knight)
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 3 from 46 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Ward is 4 from 20 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.40 – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV 

11/11 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
10/11 – Aged 6 or younger
10/11 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
10/11 – Won at least twice before
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Won over at least 1m before
9/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
9/11 – Unplaced last time out
7/11 – Won between 2-4 times
7/11 – Winners from a double-figure draw
6/11 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 16/1

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby