12:40 Nextdoortoalice @11/1
12:50 Commanche Falls @4/1, Marshal Dan @66/1
1:01 Milan Bridge @3/1
1:15 Victorias Park @100/1
1:30 Moon De Vega @6/1, Star Fortress @20/1
1:50 Golden Taipan @33/1
2:11 Jack Hackett @33/1, Abaya Du Mathan @200/1
2:45 Dashel Drasher @3/1
3:00 Knappers Hills @2/1
3:13 First Officer @8/1
Ten races from Doncaster, Aintree and Wincanton on ITV racing this Saturday, its a great warm up to the Breeders Cup that day. The Breeders Cup first race on Saturday starts as the races covered below just end, so that is great news for all us big horse racing fans. The big race of the day at Doncaster is the November Handicap run over 1m 4f and really see's the flat racing season come to an end. There is a mixture of both national hunt racing and flat racing to enjoy. Once we have finished running the data and looking at the races we will add a few more pointers of what stood out for us.
Matching profile horses will be posted closer the days racing (normally night before)
Check out our Breeders Cup 2022 preview here - https://smartbettingstats.com/blog-details/breeders-cup-2022
16/18 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
16/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Won from stall 12 or lower
15/18 – Rated 99 or higher
15/18 – Aged 4 or older
12/18 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/18 – Had won at Doncaster before
9/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/18 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Winning mare/filly
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
15/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/17 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
6/17 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
15/18 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
15/18 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
14/18 – Favourites that were unplaced
14/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
13/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
13/18 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
13/18 – Placed last time out
12/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/18 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/18 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1995
15/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
11/15 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/15 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
10/15 – Rated between 119-129
9/15 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
9/15 – Aged 6 years-old
8/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Had run at the track before
5/15 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 11)
2/15 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 9)
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
14/15 – Had won no more than twice over fences
14/15 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Irish (7) or French (5) bred
11/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
11/15 – Aged 6 or younger
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
11 of the last 13 winners were aged between 5-7
19/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
16/19 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
16/19 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
16/19 – Placed in the top four in their last race
15/19 – Won at least two chase races previously
14/19 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
14/19 – Raced at the course previously (over fences)
13/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Irish-bred horse
11/19 – Raced already that season
11/19 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
10/19 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
9/19 – Priced at double-figures
8/19 – Won their latest race
8/19 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
7/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
7/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/19 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 6 of the last 11 years)
4/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
Rocco (40/1) won the race in 2021
16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/18 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
10/18 – Rated 150 or lower
9/18 – Having first run of the season
6/18 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by John Quinn
3/18 - Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 6)
Sceau Royal won this race in 2016, 2020 and 2021
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Irish (6) or French (3) bred winners
8/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
7/10 – Had won at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Had run at Aintree before (1 winner)
4/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Aintree last time out
2/10 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
16/17 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
15/17 – Rated 124 or more
13/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/17 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
12/17 – Had run at Aintree before (5 over the GN style fences)
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
1/17 – Won last time out
13 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
7 previous runnings
6/7 - Aged 9 or younger
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede
2/7 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/7 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville
Brewin’upastorm won the race in 2021