Saturday 4th February - horse racing tips and trends

Todays horse racing trends and tips are for Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh national hunt racing. We have analysed the trends for nine ITV races and there are some very interesting matching race horses. The 2:03 Magna Sam met the the trends @33/1 and is also interesting as claiming jockeys have a very good record in the race with Alex Edwards claiming 3lb. In the Scottish County Handicap hurdle at Mussleburg (3:16) previous flat horses tend to have a good record and Kihavav meets all the trends in that race. In the 1:45 at Sandown the two Dan Skelton horses meet the horse racing trends and smartbettingstats could not split them on trends alone. Also, there is the Dublin racing festival this weekend and with Cheltenham Festival not far off now we will be keeping a close eye on all the racing in Ireland. As ever smartbettingstats will be analysing all the horse racing trends for Cheltenham Festival.

1:10 I Shut That D'Or @6/1

1:28 Bear Ghylls @9/2

1:45 Eclair D'Ainay @12/1, Third Time Luci @13/2

2:03 Magna Sam @33/1

2:20 Monmiral @9/2

2:40 O'Toole @7/2

2:55 Bells of Peterboro @14/1

3:16 Kihava @7/1

3:30 Laskalin @7/1, Bangers and Cash @11/2

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.10 – Virgin Bet Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m4f ITV

7/7 – Carried 11st 4lbs or more
7/7 – Won between 0-1 times before
7/7 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
7/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Placed favourites
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Irish bred
2/7 – Had run at the track before
2/7 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 5/1

1.45 – Virgin Bet Dolos Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV

16/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (4 won)
8/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/16 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
7/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
7/16 – French bred
6/16 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
5/16 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/16 – Aged 7 years-old
4/16 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 4)
3/16 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (3 of last 4)
3/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/16 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Ridden by Jamie Moore (2 of the last 6)
Dolos won the race in 2019, 2020, 2022 and second in 2021

2.20 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/19 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
16/19 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
15/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners, Defi Du Seuil, JLT Novices’ Chase, L’Homme Presse, Brown Advisory)
14/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/19 – French bred
11/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Aged 7 years-old
7/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/19 – Irish bred
5/19 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the Brown Advisory Chase (1 winner, L’Homme Presse)
5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/19– Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/19 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 8 winners)
L'Homme Presse (8/13) won the race in 2022

2.55 Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m7 1/2f ITV

7/7 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 - Didn’t win last time out
6/7 - Irish bred
6/7 - Won between 2-4 times
6/7 - Returned between 5/1 and 10/1 in the betting
6/7 - Aged 8 or younger
6/7 - Carried 10-10 or less in weight
5/7 - Unplaced favourites
5/7 - Rated between 129-134
4/7 - Ran at Kempton last time out
1/7 - Winning favourites
Green Book won the race last year

3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV

17/19 – Carried 11-6 or less
17/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
16/19 – Aged 9 or younger
14/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
14/19 – Rated 139 or lower
11/19 – Irish-bred
11/19 – Placed last time out
10/19 – Had raced at Sandown before (5 won)
10/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/19 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/19 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – French-bred
3/19 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/19 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 9)
Trained by Philip Hobbs (2 of the last 3)

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV) 

2.40 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/16 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
11/16 – Aged 7 years-old
11/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6^th or better)
2/16 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV) 

1.28 - bet365 Auld Yin Conditional Jockeys’ Veterans’ Handicap Chase (CJ Veterans’ Chase Series Qualifier) Cl3 (10yo+ 0-130) 2m6f ITV

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 - Aged 10 years-old
3/3 - Unplaced last time out
3/3 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/3 - Favourites placed in the top two
3/3 - Irish bred
3/3 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 - Carried 11st or more in weight
2/3 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
Trainers Charlie Longsdon, Dr Richard Newland and Neil Alexander have won the race in the past

2.03 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV 

Only 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Aged between 8-9 years-old
3/5 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
3/5 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/5 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
1/5 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Captain Cattistock won the race in 2022
Mighty Thunder (14/1) won the race in 2021
Bob Mahler (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2020

3.16 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV

14/15 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Aged 6 years-old
10/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Former flat horses
8/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/15 – Rated between 120-130
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
Socialist Agenda (4/1) won the race in 2022