Newbury Trends and Tips Friday 25th November
1:20 I'd Like to Know @8/1, Heezer Geezer @16/5
1:55 Beauport @3/1
2:30 Paint the Dream @3/1
3:05 Dashel Drasher @9/1
3:40 Abuffalosoldier @7/1
Todays national hunt horse racing is from Newbury and is the first day of what was formally called the Hennessy meeting. ITV racing are showing five races and smartbettingstats have analysed the trends of the previous winners to see which horses running today match those profiles.
7/8 – Aged 5 years-old
7/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Winning favourites
3/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (last 2)
2/8 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore (2 of last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/4
14/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 5 or older
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Favourites placed in the top 2
11/15 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
8/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/15 – Yet to win over fences
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (inc 2 of last 3 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Nico de Boinville has won the race twice since 2014
Daryl Jacob has won the race twice since 2013
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8
14/15 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
14/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
12/15 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
11/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
10/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/15 – Rated between 131 and 140
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of the last 4)
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Tizzard yard
2/15 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 5)
1/15 – Winning favourites
Fanion D’Estruval won the race in 2021
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
16/20 – Grade One winner over hurdles
15/20 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
14/20 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
14/20 – Placed favourites
14/20 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/20 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
13/20 – Ran at either Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
12/20 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/20 – Winning favourites
10/20 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – French bred
8/20 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/20 – Went onto win that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
7/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 13 renewals)
Thomas Darby (7/1) won this race in 2021
Paisley Park (8/15 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
14/15 – Placed 5th or better last time out
14/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
10/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/15 – Irish-bred winners
8/15 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
8/15 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Trained by David Pipe
Dolphin Square won this race in 2021
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1