Epsom Horse Racing Trends - Friday 2nd June 2023
This weekend is the Oaks and The Derby from Epsom. Smartbettingstats have all the trends and will be analysing the trends, posting tips for each race based on the trends. The two classic races are group ones and attract the best middle distance 3 year olds in Europe.
Saturday 3rd June
12:50 Maries Diamond 12/1
1:30 Artistic Star 18/1, The Foxes 12/1
2:10 Astral Beau 5/1
2:45 Estate 5/1
3:20 Come From the Dark 20/1, Sampers Seven 16/1, Lihou 14/1
3:55 God of Fire 50/1, Balance Play 7/2
4:30 Green Team 40/1
5:05 Indian Creek 16/1, Count Otto 50/1
Friday 2nd June
2:00 Bobsleigh 7/1
2:35 Austrian Theory 7/1, Hodler 16/1
3:10 Hurricane Lane 4/1
3:45 Masekela 9/1
4:30 Be Happy 50/1, Running Lion 13/2
Epsom Horse Racing Trends
EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
12:50 – BETFRED Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV
19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Aged 5 or older
12/19 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Trained by the Crisford stable
1.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV
Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats
20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before
19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/21 – Had won a Group race before
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
14/21 – Won last time out
13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
10/21 – Irish-trained winners
8/21 – Had won a Group One before
7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
7/21 – Won by the favourite
5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/21 – Won over 1m4f before
1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/21 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7-12 (5 of the last 10 from stalls 10 (2) or 12 (3))
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7+
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020
2.10 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4
20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
17/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/20 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/20 – Aged 4 years-old
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/20 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Tom Marquand (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
The last 10 winners were drawn 8 or lower (7 of the last 10 drawn 5 or lower)
2.45 Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 0 from 15 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
3.20 – Aston Martin "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV
Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats
18/20 – Didn’t win last time out
18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
16/20– Unplaced favourites
15/20 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
15/20 – Came from stall 8 or higher
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/20 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/20 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/20 – Winning favourites
Mokaatil won the race in 2021
3.55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV4
20/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)
17/20 – Never run at Epsom before
14/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
13/20 – Placed last time out
12/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
11/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Favourites that were placed
8/20 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/19 – Won their previous race
3/20 – Winners from stall 1
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/20 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 5)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 20 runnings
4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4
9/9 - Aged 6 or younger
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/9 – Winning favourites
5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
9/9 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
7/9 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by John Spearing
2/9 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 4)
Mr Wagyu won the race last year
Friday 2nd June
2.00 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV
20/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
19/20 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/20 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first two home
16/20 – Had 2 or more previous runs
15/20 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/20 – Yet to win over 6f
11/20 – Won their previous race
10/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/20 – Trained by Mick Channon
10 of the last 14 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)
2.35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 114y
17/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/19 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
13/19 – Placed last time out
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Carried 9-1 or more
8/19 – Raced at the track before
6/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/19 - Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
10 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
Corazon Espinado (12/1) won the race in 2021
3.10 – Dahlbury Coronation Cup (Group 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV
21/21 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
20/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
18/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
18/21 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/21 – Favourites placed
11/21 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
11/21 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (5 won)
8/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)
8/21 – Won their last race
8/21 – Winning favourites
7/21 – Had run at Epsom before
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)
1/21 – Winners from stall 1
Note: The 2020 renewal was run at Newmarket
3.45 – Betfred Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f ITV
17/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Came from stall 9 or lower
13/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Rated between 86-98
12/19 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight (but 5 of the last 6 carried 9-2 or more)
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Irish bred
11/19 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
8/19 – Had raced at the track before
6/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4.30 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV
21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
18/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/21 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
13/21 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/21 – Won from stall 5 or higher
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
12/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
8/21 – Irish-trained winners
6/21 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
6/21 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
5/21 – Returned a double-figure price
4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/21 – Trained by John Gosden
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/21 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/21 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 16 favourites were unplaced
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
O’Brien and Gosden have won ALL of the last 9 runnings between them
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10.5/1
7 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 21 runnings