Epsom Horse Racing Trends - Friday 2nd June 2023

This weekend is the Oaks and The Derby from Epsom. Smartbettingstats have all the trends and will be analysing the trends, posting tips for each race based on the trends. The two classic races are group ones and attract the best middle distance 3 year olds in Europe. 

Saturday 3rd June

12:50 Maries Diamond 12/1

1:30 Artistic Star 18/1, The Foxes 12/1

2:10 Astral Beau 5/1

2:45 Estate 5/1

3:20 Come From the Dark 20/1, Sampers Seven 16/1, Lihou 14/1

3:55 God of Fire 50/1, Balance Play 7/2

4:30 Green Team 40/1

5:05 Indian Creek 16/1, Count Otto 50/1

Friday 2nd June

2:00 Bobsleigh 7/1

2:35 Austrian Theory 7/1, Hodler 16/1

3:10 Hurricane Lane 4/1

3:45 Masekela 9/1

4:30 Be Happy 50/1, Running Lion 13/2

Epsom Horse Racing Trends

Saturday 3rd June

EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

12:50 – BETFRED Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before

17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before

17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks

16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out

16/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower

15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks

14/19 – Had won at least 4 times before

14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

13/19 – Aged 5 or older

12/19 – Had raced at Epsom before

9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting

6/19 – Won last time out

5/19 – Winning favourites

3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding

3/19 – Ridden by William Buick

2/19 – Trained by the Crisford stable

1.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks

19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before

19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out

17/21 – Had won a Group race before

17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting

15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before

14/21 – Won last time out

13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall

13/21 – Favourites that were placed

12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before

10/21 – Irish-trained winners

8/21 – Had won a Group One before

7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)

7/21 – Won by the favourite

5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)

5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out

5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher

4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)

2/21 – Won over 1m4f before

1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)

0/21 – Run at the course before

The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1

8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7-12 (5 of the last 10 from stalls 10 (2) or 12 (3))

9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7+

11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)

Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby 

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

2.10 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4

20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting

19/20 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before

17/20 – Favourites placed

16/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old

16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting

15/20 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8

15/20 – Had won over at least a mile before

15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out

15/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks

13/20 – Had won between 4-6 times before

12/20 – Aged 4 years-old

11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less

10/20 – Winning favourites

9/20 – Had raced at Epsom before

9/20 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6

8/20 – Won last time out

7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out

4/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor

4/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse

2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

2/20 – Trained by the Channon yard

2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton

Jockeys Tom Marquand (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings

Godolphin have won 4 of the last 13 runnings

The last 10 winners were drawn 8 or lower (7 of the last 10 drawn 5 or lower)

2.45 Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4

No previous  runnings

Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

Trainer Roger Varian is 0 from 15 with his 3 year-olds at the track

Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track

3.20 – Aston Martin "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats

18/20 – Didn’t win last time out

18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)

16/20– Unplaced favourites

15/20 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)

15/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight

15/20 – Came from stall 8 or higher

13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting

12/20 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)

5/20 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame

1/20 – Winning favourites

Mokaatil won the race in 2021

3.55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV4

20/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks

18/20 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)

17/20 – Never run at Epsom before

14/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher

13/20 – Placed last time out

12/20 – Carried 8-10 or more

11/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting

9/20 – Favourites that were placed

8/20 – Horses placed from stall 1

6/19 – Won their previous race

3/20 – Winners from stall 1

3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute

3/20 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk

3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 5)

Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 20 runnings

4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

9/9  - Aged 6 or younger

8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old

2/9 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)

2/9 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)

2/9 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy

2/9 – Winning favourites

5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

9/9 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher

7/9 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10

7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old

7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight

3/9 – Winning favourites

2/9 – Trained by John Spearing

2/9 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 5)

2/9 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 5)

2/9 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 4)

Mr Wagyu won the race last year

Friday 2nd June

2.00 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

20/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks

19/20 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before

18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out

17/20 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting

16/20 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first two home

16/20 – Had 2 or more previous runs

15/20 – Winners from stall 5 or lower

12/20 – Yet to win over 6f

11/20 – Won their previous race

10/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)

5/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)

3/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard

3/20 – Trained by Mick Channon

10 of the last 14 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)

2.35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 114y

17/19 – Had won over at least a mile before

16/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks

14/19 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old

13/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before

13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower

13/19 – Placed last time out

12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting

12/19 – Placed favourites

11/19 – Irish bred

9/19 – Carried 9-1 or more

8/19 – Raced at the track before

6/19 – Won last time out

4/19 – Raced at Sandown last time out

4/19 – Winning favourites

2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding

2/19 - Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)

2/19 – Ridden by William Buick

10 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting

Corazon Espinado (12/1) won the race in 2021

3.10 – Dahlbury Coronation Cup (Group 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

21/21 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race

20/21 – Had won over 1m4f before

20/21 – Aged 6 or younger

18/21 – Finished in the top three last time out

18/21 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old

14/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks

14/21 – Favourites placed

11/21 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out

11/21 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (5 won)

8/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)

8/21 – Won their last race

8/21 – Winning favourites

7/21 – Had run at Epsom before

3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)

1/21 – Winners from stall 1

Note: The 2020 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.45 – Betfred Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

17/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before

16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old

15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks

15/19 – Came from stall 9 or lower

13/19 – Had won at least 3 times before

13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

13/19 – Rated between 86-98

12/19 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight (but 5 of the last 6 carried 9-2 or more)

12/19 – Placed favourites

12/19 – Irish bred

11/19 – Came from the top three in the betting

10/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter

8/19 – Had raced at the track before

6/19 – Won last time out

6/19 – Winning favourites

3/19 – Raced at Goodwood last time out

4.30 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f ITV

21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks

18/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out

17/21 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced

13/21 – Won over at least 1m2f previously

13/21 – Won from stall 5 or higher

13/21 – Favourites that were placed

12/21 – Won last time out

8/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien

8/21 – Irish-trained winners

6/21 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)

6/21 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas

5/21 – Returned a double-figure price

4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

3/21 – Trained by John Gosden

2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett

1/21 – Had run over 1m4f before

0/21 – Had run at the course before

7 of the last 16 favourites were unplaced

7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower

9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9 or lower

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times

Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings

O’Brien and Gosden have won ALL of the last 9 runnings between them

The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10.5/1

7 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season

Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks

The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 21 runnings