Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends: November 2023

Sunday 19th November

1:10 Innatendue 11/1

1:45 Crebilly 3/1

2:20 Bangers and Cash 18/1

2:55 Jonbon 4/7

3:30 Iberico Lord 11/2

4:00 Fire Flyer 5/1

Saturday 18th November

12:35 Gifted Angel 9/1

1:10 Wick Green 28/1

1:45 Weveallbeencaught 5/1

2:20 Angels Breath 9/1

2:36 Blue Trail 4/1

2:55 Shan Blue 10/1

3:11 Summerghand 16/1, Pink Crystal 7/1

3:30 Resplendent Grey 15/4

4:05 Easy Peasy 13/2

Friday 17th November

1:10 Fathom Two 10/1, Doughmore Bay 20/1

1:45 Prince Escalus 50/1, Guy 14/1

2:20 Homme Public 6/1

2:55 Latenight Pass 8/1, Debden Bank 250/1

3:30 Minella Missisle 16/1

Saturday Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV

11/12 - Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/12 - Finished first or second last time out
11/12 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
11/12 - Favourites placed in the first three
11/12 - Won between 0-1 times over fences
9/12 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 - Had raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
8/12 - Won last time out
8/12 - Ran at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
5/12 - French bred
5/12 - Winning favourites
3/12 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 - Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton
The last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
7 of the last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old

2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

20/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before
20/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
20/21 – Won by a UK-based trainer
17/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Carried 11st or less
15/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/21 – Had won at Cheltenham before
13/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
13/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/21 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
10/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/21 – Aged 7 years-old
8/21 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/21 – Won their last race
5/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (4 in total)
3/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/21 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/21 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 11 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 45 runners
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1

2.55 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

19/21 – Aged 7 or younger
18/21 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
17/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
16/21 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
15/21 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
15/21 – Irish bred
14/21  – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (4) or Chepstow (3) last time out
14/21 – Officially rated 126 to 137
13/21 – Placed favourites
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/21 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/21 – Won their last race
7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/21 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien (2 of last 5)
1/21 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
5 of the last 15 winners have had a claiming jockey riding

3.30 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

16/18 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/18 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Irish-bred winners
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – French bred winners
3/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
4/18 - Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 14 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Friday Trends

1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV4

19/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
17/20 – Raced at Cheltenham before
17/20 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
16/20 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
16/20 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
12/20 – Unplaced in their previous race
11/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/20 – Favourites placed
11/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
10/20 - Having their first run of the season
8/20 – French-bred horse
4/20 – Favourites that won
4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/20 – Won their most recent race
2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/19 – Trained by Paul Henderson (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/20 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan (2 of the last 5)
0/20 – Irish-trained winners
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey

2.20 – SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV4

20/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
18/20 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
18/20 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
17/20 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
17/20 -  Finished in the top three in their latest race
15/20 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/20 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
14/20 – Favourites placed
12/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old  (11 of last 15 runnings)
11/20 – Raced already that season
10/20 – Irish-bred horse
10/20 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
10/20 – Won their latest race
8/20 – French-bred horse
8/20 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/20 – First run over fences
8/20 – Favourites that won
7/20 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
5/20 – Trained by the Pipe stable

2.55 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m4f ITV4

19/19 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
16/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
15/19 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
14/19 – Unplaced in their last race
14/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
14/19 – Had a recent run that season
13/19 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
13/19 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (9 won)
13/19 – Favourites placed
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/19 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/19 – Trained by Enda Bolger (3 of last 8)
7/19 – Favourites that won (5 of the last 10)
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-2 or less in weight
7 of the last 10 winners aged 8 or older
6 of the last 10 winners carried between 10st – 10st 11lbs
4 of the last 10 runnings won by a previous winner
Martin Keighley and Sean Bowen have teamed up to win the last two
The Philip Hobbs yard have won 2 of the last 10 runnings
The Michael Scudamore yard have won 2 of the last 6 runnings

3.30 - Trustatrader Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

18/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
18/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
13/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
13/18 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
13/18 – Aged 5 years-old
12/18 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
12/18 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won just once before (under rules)
6/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
4/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season