Horse Racing Tips
Cheltenham Day 4 Friday 17th March - Tips and Trends
The Gold Cup day trends tips will be posted the evening before Cheltenham race day, smartbettingstats.com will also be doing a write up on the daily racing and highlighting any key stand out points.
1:30 Jipcot 66/1, Gala Marceau 9/2
2:10 Path D'oroux 16/1, Pembroke 11/2
2:50 Sandor Clegane 20/1, Dawn Rising 20/1, Hiddenvalley Lake 7/1,
3:30 Protektorat 20/1, Conflated 18/1
4:10 Chris's Dream 8/1, Secret Investor 20/1
4:50 Elimay 25/1
5:30 Imagine 13/2,
Friday 17th March 2023 (New Course)
Cheltenham Festival Trends
1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV
2022 Winner: VAUBAN (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses…..
23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
Irish have won 7 of the last 10 runnings
French-breds have filled 13 of the last 22 places (last 8 runnings)
13 of the last 18 came from the top 4 in the betting
12 of the last 15 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (Last year’s winner Vauban won that race too)
9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (7 of the last 11) last time
9 of the last 11 winners had raced by Christmas time
6 of the last 8 winners began their careers in France
Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 9 years
Negatives….
Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
Just 2 of the last 18 winner returned bigger than 12/1
Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 14
Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020 and 2022 races – currently 2-from-34
Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost (all unplaced too)
2.10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
2022 Winner: STATE MAN (11/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
The Irish have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (3)
Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 13 runnings
18 of the last 22 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
13 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 130’s
8 of the last 15 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
7 of the last 14 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
13 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
12 of the last 24 winners aged 5
6 of the last 9 winners had run at Cheltenham before
11 of the last 16 winners Irish-trained
9 of the last 15 winners started their careers in France
13 of the last 17 winners were priced in double-figures
13 of the last 19 winners began their careers on the flat
Look for Mullins, Skelton, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
12 of the last 22 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
5 of the last 7 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
Willie Mullins is 4 from 48 (+40.25pts)
Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 7 winners
Negatives….
Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-19) since 2011
Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 35 in last 15 runnings
Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 21
Just 3 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price
2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: THE NICE GUY (18/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
9 of the last 18 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
15 of the last 18 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
7 of the last 18 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
15 of the last 18 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
7 of the last 11 winners had won a Point
7 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland
10 of the last 14 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
9 of the last 12 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
9 of the last 18 came from the top 5 in the betting
10 of the last 18 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
14 of the last 18 had run in a race over 3m
15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
14 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
12 of the last 18 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
4 of the last 17 favourites won
Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Negatives….
Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
Willie Mullins is 3 from 44 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
Gordon Elliott is 0-from-9
Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 18)
Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 10 years
5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 17)
Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV
2022 Winner: A PLUS TARD (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
19 of the last 23 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
19 of the last 22 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18 of the last 23 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
11 of the last 17 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
22 of the last 23 winners were Grade 1 winners
Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
18 of the last 22 had won or placed at the Festival before
18 of the last 22 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
20 of the last 23 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
13 of the last 15 winners ran 3 or less times that season
17 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
10 of the last 20 winners were favourites (50%)
13 of the last 18 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
ALL of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger
22 of the last 23 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
20 of the last 23 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
Negatives….
Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 41
Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 36 (had 4 of the last 10 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
Just 2 of the last 15 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2022 Winner: BILLAWAY (13/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses…..
28 of the last 32 winners were aged under 11 years-old
26 of the last 37 won last time out
The last 8 winners aged 10 or 11
19 of the last 20 winners Irish or French bred
The last 16 winners were yet to win over this trip
7 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
9 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
30 of the last 34 started out in point-to-point races
13 of the last 17 winners ran 34 days or less ago
Respect the Irish runners (won 8 of last 12)
5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
12 of the last 17 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
9 of the last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
13 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
11 of the last 13 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 10, rated 138+)
3 back-to-back winner in the last 11
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
Negatives….
Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
Just 2 winners in the last 46 years aged 12 or older
27 of the last 34 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 35 runnings
Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
British bred horses are 0-86 (last 20 runnings)
Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 256 since 1990
Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV
2022 Winner: ELIMAY (1st 9/4)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Only 2 previous runnings
Willie Mullins trained both winners
Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
Both winners returned 9/4 2nd favourite
Both winners won last time out
Both winners rated 150+
Both winners aged 8
Both winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
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2022 Winner: BANDBRIDGE (12/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Mark McDonagh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
13 of the last 14 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top 3 last time
All of the last 14 winners carried 11-1 or more
3 of the last 5 winners had top-weight
All 14 winners aged 7 or younger
8 or the last 11 winners rated 139+
12 of the last 14 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
6 of the last 9 winners were Irish-based Novices
Irish have won 8 of the last 12 (6 making handicap debuts)
36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
11 of the 14 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
7 of the 14 winners won last time out
6 of the last 9 winners had run over a longer trip that season
8 of the 14 winners were rated 133-139
9 of the 14 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 14 were 16/1 or less)
5 and 6 year-old have won 12 of last 14 runnings
Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
Willie Mullins is 4 from 22 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 12 runnings)
Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 10 years
Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 4
Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 10 between them
Negatives….
Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 59
Just 1 winning fav in the 14-year history (9-12 returned in double-figures)
Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 75
Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-96