Cheltenham Day 3 Thursday 16th March - Tips and Trends

Cheltenham Festival trends tips will be posted the evening before the racing, smartbettingstats.com will also be doing a write up on the daily racing and highlighting any key stand out points.

Matching trends tips:

1:30 Stage Star 10/1

2:10 The Bosses Oscar 8/1, Hector Javilex 16/1

2:50 Blue Lord 6/1

3:30 Gold Tweet 11/1 (8 out 16 had ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time, Gold Tweet won the race)

4:10 Mars Harper 33/1, Captain Tom Cat 80/1, Bowtogreatness 80/1

4:50 Foxy Girl 12/1, The Model Kingdom 33/1

5:30 Dunboyne 8/1

Thursday 16th March (New Course)
Cheltenham Festival Trends

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: BOB OLINGER 6/5
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachel Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
3 of the last 12 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners
Negatives….
Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
4 winning favourites in 12 runnings (1 co)
5 year-olds are 0-from-7
Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: THIRD WIND (25/1)
Trainer – Hughie Morison
Jockey – Tom O’Brien
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 runnings
Last 11 winners aged 8 or younger
Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown  Qualifier (Christmas)
Negatives….
Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 runnings)
Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 48

    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2022 Winner: ALLAHO (4/7 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
7 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
9 of the last 15 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Last 9 winners were French-bred
All winners ran 5 or less times that season
5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 runnings
Negatives….
Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
No winner aged 11 or older
Only 1 of the last 14 winners aged 10
Just one winner rated 160 or below
Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
No winner was having their Festival debut

    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2022 Winner: FLOORING PORTER (4/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish-trained   
Pluses….
13 of the last 18 won last time out
7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
20 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
8 of the last 21 were French Bred
Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
19 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 runnings)
17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Negatives….
Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 runningss
Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)

4.10 - Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2022 Winner: COOLE CODY (22/1)
Trainer – Evan Williams
Jockey – Adam Wedge
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
Look out for French-breds
14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 runnings
17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
Negatives….
Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

    4.50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares’ (Dawn Run) Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2022 Winner: LOVE ENVOI
Trainer – Harry Fry
Jockey – Jonathan Burke
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
A new race (Just 7 renewals)
All 7 winners aged 5 or 6
6 of the last 7 winners trained in Ireland
Favourites have won 3 of the 7 runnings
4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
4 of the 7 winners were French-bred
4 of the last 7 winners were top or 2nd top rated
5 of the last 7 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
5 of the last 7 past winners started their careers in France
5 of the last 7 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
4 of the 7 winners were unbeaten that season
Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 7 runnings (just 4 runners)
4 of the 7 winners have been aged 5 years-old
Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
Negatives….
British trained runners are 1-from-49
British bred mares are 0-from-23
Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-10
JP McManus owned are 0-from-8
7 year-olds or older are 0-from-20

    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2022 Winner: CHAMBARD
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Lucy Turner
UK/Irish: UK-trained