CHELTENHAM DAY 3 - TRENDS AND TIPS

Today is St Patricks day at Cheltenham so there will be plenty of Guineas flowing like every other day at the Festival. A few main call outs while looking at the trends analysis. Grey Dawning in the first race meets the trends and Skelton is on song also which is a good sign. Anna Bunina is a great price and clearly meets all the trends, the claimer riding the horse has a 20% strike rate when riding over hurdles also. Buddy One 40/1 meets the trends and was 3rd in the Martin Pipe last year, which was won by Iroko who goes off at 13/2 for the Turners today. All the horse below are the matches of the previous winners profiles/trends of the same race. 

Thursday 14th March

1:30 Grey Dawning 5/2

2:10 Anna Bunina 50/1, Gaoth Chuil 8/1

2:50 Banbridge 5/1, Capodanno 9/1

3:30 Buddy One 40/1, Crambo 6/1

4:10 Glengouly 16/1, Shakem Up'Arry 10/1, Crebilly 9/2

4:50 Titanium Moon 100/1

5:30 Chavez 18/1, Cool Survivor 10/1

THURSDAY 14TH MARCH 2024 (NEW COURSE)

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TRENDS 2024

    1.30 - TURNERS NOVICES' CHASE (GRADE 1) 2M 3F 166Y ITV

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR 15/2
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 9 of the 13 winners were Irish-trained
• 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 13 winners
• 9 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 12 of the last 13 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 9 of the last 13 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
• 10 of the last 13 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 11 of the last 13 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
• 12 of the 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 9 of the last 13 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 12 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 11 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
• 9 of the last 13 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
• 3 outright winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
• 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 13 winners French (4) or Irish (8) bred (7 of last 8 Irish bred)
• 5 of the last 13 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 7 of the last 13 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 9 of last 13 renewals
• 8 of the last 9 winners rated 151+
• 3 of the last 13 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
• Gordon Elliott is 2 from 6
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 5 winners
• 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just 4 British-trained winners so far, but one was last year (Stage Star)
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 13
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 13 runnings (1 co)
• 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
• Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

================================================

    2.10 - PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (GRADE 3) 2M 7F 213Y ITV 

2023 Winner: GOOD TIME JONNY (9/1)
Trainer – AJ Martin
Jockey – Liam McKenna (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• Irish have won the last 7 of last 8 runnings
• Last 12 winners aged 8 or younger
• Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
• 9 of the last 16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 11 of the last 23 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 12 of the last 17 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 19 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 12 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 11 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 8 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 23 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 8 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
• Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)
• 7 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 8 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 50