Cheltenham Day 2 Wednesday 15th March - tips and trends

Day 2 Cheltenham trends tips will be posted the evening before the Wednesday 15th March. The big race of the day is the Champion Chase run over 2miles. smartbettingstats.com will also be doing a write up on the daily racing and highlighting any key stand out points.

1:30 Hermes Allen 9/2 

2:10 Sir Gerhard 11/2

2:50 Run For Oscar 8/1, Red Riskn 40/1, HMS Seahorse 11/1, San Salvador 18/1

3:30 Editeur De Gite 11/2

4:10 Galvin 9/4

4:50 Elixir de Nutz 14/1, Dancing on My own 50/1

5:30 Better Days Ahead 12/1, Fun Fun Fun 8/1

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 15th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

    1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV
2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
27 of the last 28 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
Horses rated 150+ do well
11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
22 of the last 24 were NH bred
16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5
Negatives….
Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV
2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
15 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
8 of the last 16 favourites won
The last 8 winners were rated 150+
10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
Horses in headgear have a poor record

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
12 of the last 18 were 2nd season hurdlers
18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
Respect JP McManus-owned runners
Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
15 of the last 29 won last time out
Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
The last 4 winners wore headgear
Negatives….
Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV
2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
The last 7 winners wore headgear
8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
Negatives….
Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
Negatives….
Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained