Horse Racing Tips
Cheltenham Day 1 Tuesday 14th March - Tips and Trends
Write up and tips will be posted the night before the first day of Cheltenham 2023, smartbettingstats.com will be highlighting any stand out trends/insights every day at the Cheltenham Festival.
Tuesday 14th March the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2023, there will be a lot of excited people as this is the big festival and showpiece event of the National Hunt Horse Racing calendar. Smartbettingstats are currently working on analysis the Cheltenham Festival Trends and will be posting tips for all races with the matching horses for the trends.
Paul Nichols is quoted as saying Tahmuras is in the same elk as Nolan and Al Ferof, which is a good sign as the ground will be quite testing and this 2 mile will be a proper testing race won buy a genuine stayer. The faster they go the better, Nichols also has the fav for the Ballymore Novices so will know how Tahmuras matches up with that. We brought Chasing Fire back in at the price due to the Cheltenham Festival trends for Olly Murphy is the Supreme Novices hurdle, the horse was very close on the Superme Novices Hurdle trends alone so looks worth keeping in the shortlist. In the Arkle the trends just side with Jon Bon and we like him anyway, we thought the horse got the jockey out of a mess in the race at Warwick so we're not put off by that. In the mares hurdle the 4:10 the other Nicky Henderson horse Theatre Royal meets the trends at 28/1. Three horses meet the trends in the 5:30 and Coolvalla jockey has won this race before so even tough he's not one of the most well know amateurs he has still been their and won the race.
As a Cheltenham Special we like Britain to win the Prestbury cup at 15.0 on Betfair, its a big price, they could feasibly have every winner on day 1. Also, the fact that the jumping take offs will be painted white will surely play in to the British horses hands more.
Matching trends horses below
1:30 Il Etait Temps 5/1, Tahmuras 10/1 & Chasing Fire (Olly Murphy trend bringing this one back in) 20/1
2:10 Jon Bon 7/4
2:50 Monbeg Genius 12/1, Oscar Elite 11/1
3:30 Constitution Hill 4/11
4:10 Theatre Royal 28/1
4:50 Perseus Way 12/1
5:30 Chemical Energy 13/2, Coolvalla 50/1, Mister Coffey 10/1
2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends
Tuesday 14th March 2023 (Old Course)
1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2022 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL 9/4 jfav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-traine
Pluses…
23 of the last 26 winners won their last race
14 of the last 19 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the market
10 of the last 11 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
Irish-trained horses have won 17 of the last 31 runnings
5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 16 of the last 18 runnings
Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 10 years
8 of the last 10 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
26 of the last 28 winners had raced that same calendar year
Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 9 winners had been rated 153 or more
9 of the last 10 winners returned a single-figure price
9 of the last 14 winners were previous bumper winners
Negatives…..
Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 26. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
Since 1992 all horses (38) wearing head-gear have been beaten
We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
Just 3 of the last 20 winners came here unbeaten
Just 1 of the last 20 winners aged 7 or older
Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
2.10 - Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV
2022 Winner: EDWARDSTONE (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Alan King
Jockey – Tom Cannon
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
14 of the last 18 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
17 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
The last 13 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
21 of the last 23 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
13 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over fences before
14 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
15 of the last 20 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
14 of the last 19 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over fences
Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings (all French-bred)
8 of the last 11 winners trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson (4 each)
8 of the last 11 favourites have won
Negatives…..
Only 2 of the last 36 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
Just 3 of the last 32 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
Only 4 of the last 31 winners were older than 7 years-old
The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
Ex-flat horses have a poor record
Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2022 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
18 of the last 23 winners were officially rated 143 or less
15 of the last 22 came from the top 4 in the betting
18 of the last 22 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
16 of the last 22 were novices or second season chasers
8 of the last 15 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
Horses rated 140+ have won 14 of the last 22 runnings
9 of the last 20 won last time out
Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
9 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
10 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
5 of the last 8 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Trophy that season
11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
Northern-based runners have a good record
Negatives….
Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 18 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2022 winner (Corach Rambler carried 10st 2lbs)
Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 54 to even get placed
Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 24
Only 3 winners in the last 14 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
The Irish have won just 2 of the last 54 runnings (since 1967)
Irish-trained runners are 0-35 in the last 16 runnings
3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2022 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE (1st 8/11 fav)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
33 of the last 39 won last time out
Horses unbeaten that season often do well (10 of last 12)
The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 runnings between them
9 of the last 14 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
The Irish have won 15 of the last 24 runnings
Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 13 (10 in total)
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 12 runnings
27 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (11 of last 16)
14 of the last 24 winners had won at the Festival before
25 of the last 38 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 6 places in last 15 runnings)
14 of the last 27 winners started as flat horses
The last 8 winners were unbeaten that season
Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 6 years
6 of the last 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 9 runnings
9 of the last 14 winners were (4) Mullins or (5) Henderson-trained
Negatives….
Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
5 year-olds are just 2 from 111 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 39 runnings)
Just 1 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 4 from 32, but – Epatante 2020) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 19 years)
Only 2 of the last 24 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was 52 years ago (Bula)
4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV
2022 Winner: MARIE’S ROCK
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK-trained
Pluses….
Follow Irish-trained mares (12 of last 15)
The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 11 of the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 15 favourites have won
12 of the last 12 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
14 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m4f
Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 15 winners
Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
Novices generally do well
10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
6 of the last 11 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 15 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
Negatives….
Avoid front-runners
British-bred mares are currently 3-86
Just 1 outright favourite in the last 8 runnings
Just one winner from last 31 runners to wear headgear have won
Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
Just 1 winner aged 8+ (Quevega)
4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV
2022 Winner: BRAZIL (10/1)
Trainer – Padraig Roche
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish-trained
Pluses….
10 of the last 18 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
French bred horses have a good record
9 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
Respect Fillies
12 of the last 18 winners carried 11st+
9 of the last 18 winners won last time out
8 of the last 12 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
11 of the last 18 had run in the last 25 days
David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (3 of last 10) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
6 of the last 11 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 11 priced 25/1+)
12 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price
Respect horses wearing headgear
13 of the last 18 winners were rated between 124-134
8 of the last 15 winners were British-trained
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 13 runnings
13 of the last 18 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 38 between them
Just 3 of the last 18 winners rated 135+
Horses bred in Britain are 0-59 (last 14 years)
Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 18 (just 2 placed in top 5 too)
Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 18
5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
