Horse Racing Tips
Friday 4th November - Breeders Cup Tips & Trends
7:00pm Love Reigns @10/3 (Wes Ward won last three)
7:40pm Chop Chop @3/1, Raging Sea @12/1
8:20pm Free Look @8/1, Be Your Best @16/1
9:00pm Verifying @18/1(Cox and Rosario also have impressive records in the race), Blazing 7s @9/1, Curly Jack @33/1
9:40pm Victoria Road @17/2
We've wrote a Breeders Cup preview under the Blogs section- https://smartbettingstats.com/blog-details/breeders-cup-2022
Friday night at the Breeders Cup is focussed around the juvenile horses and all the action from Keeneland USA is covered by us. We will have more of a preview closer the day with the matching horses also posted. Europe will sure to have a few runners on the Friday but the home team of USA will also have some big hitters running it will be sure to be a great spectacle and is not to be missed.
7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)
- 2017 (undercard) at Del Mar: Euro 1234
- 2018 US 123 (1st/2nd from wire)
- 2019 US 1234 (1st/2nd from wire), 2020 US 12 Euro 34 (1st from wire), 2021 US 1345 (1st from wire)
- Wes Ward won last three, overall form: 200 in 2018; 149 in 2019; 1500 in 2020; 135 in 2021
- First 2 winners unbeaten (1 & 2 prior starts), 2020 winner won LTO/form 221, 2021 winner won LTO/form 2121
- All 4 winners led all the way
- Winners LTO: '18 1st Listed; '19 1st G3; '20 1st Listed; '21 1st Listed
- Best two Euros: '18 3rd/4th; '19 5th/7th; '20 3rd/4th; '21 2nd/6th
7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt)
Key Trends (38 renewals to date)
- 17 of the last 20 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
- Last 20, career runs: 2-3/3-8/4-6/5+-3
- Layoff: 32/38 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off, '21 winner 33 days off); (35/38 5 weeks off or less)
- 31/38 (82%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
- 21/27 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
- 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
- 35/38 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
- Favourite is 19/38 (50%)
- "Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
- 23/38 (61%) had NOT won at the distance
- Baffert not won since 2007
8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf)
Key Trends (14 renewals to date)
- US 12 Euro 2
- 9/12 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
- 13/14 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
- 13/14 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
- 14/14 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
- Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 5
- Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-3 ('21 winner off 47 days)
- Prior Runs: US winners 2-8; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
- 80+ Beyer – 9/12 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
- 2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
- Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California), last one was 2018. 3rd at 6/1 in 2021
- 4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo (2nd in '22 MsG with Free Look)
- All US exacta: 5/14 (US 1-3 in '21)
9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt)
Key Trends (38 renewals so far)
- 36/38 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
- Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-7 (incl 5 in last 9 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6
- Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
- Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2021
- 19 of the last 29 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
- 18 of last 26 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
- Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
- (s) Synthetic track
- Baffert won 5 times, Pletcher & O'Neill twice each
9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf)
Key Trends (15 renewals to date)
- Euro 9 US 6 (APO'B 1st Kee 2015, 2nd Kee 2020)
- 2-6 runs (14/15 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-3/6-1)
- 5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/9 Euro won at 1m
- 1st-3rd Fav combined only 8 from 45 - 47% winners outside top 3 in betting
- 15/15 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
- 0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT, 1 MIDFIELD)
- 7 of the 9 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; exceptions 108 LTO, 105 LTO
- 9/9 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 6 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18, '21 winners won G3 LTO)
- 6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
- Euro winners 20-43 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
- Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20
- APOB 4, C Appleby 4, Gosden 3