Horse Racing Tips

Friday 4th November - Breeders Cup Tips & Trends 


7:00pm Love Reigns @10/3 (Wes Ward won last three)

7:40pm Chop Chop @3/1, Raging Sea @12/1

8:20pm Free Look @8/1, Be Your Best @16/1

9:00pm Verifying @18/1(Cox and Rosario also have impressive records in the race), Blazing 7s @9/1, Curly Jack @33/1

9:40pm Victoria Road @17/2



We've wrote a Breeders Cup preview under the Blogs section- https://smartbettingstats.com/blog-details/breeders-cup-2022



Friday night at the Breeders Cup is focussed around the juvenile horses and all the action from Keeneland USA is covered by us. We will have more of a preview closer the day with the matching horses also posted. Europe will sure to have a few runners on the Friday but the home team of USA will also have some big hitters running it will be sure to be a great spectacle and is not to be missed.


7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)


  • 2017 (undercard) at Del Mar: Euro 1234
  • 2018 US 123 (1st/2nd from wire)
  • 2019 US 1234 (1st/2nd from wire), 2020 US 12 Euro 34 (1st from wire), 2021 US 1345 (1st from wire)
  • Wes Ward won last three, overall form: 200 in 2018; 149 in 2019; 1500 in 2020; 135 in 2021
  • First 2 winners unbeaten (1 & 2 prior starts), 2020 winner won LTO/form 221, 2021 winner won LTO/form 2121
  • All 4 winners led all the way
  • Winners LTO: '18 1st Listed; '19 1st G3; '20 1st Listed; '21 1st Listed
  • Best two Euros: '18 3rd/4th; '19 5th/7th; '20 3rd/4th; '21 2nd/6th

7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

  • 17 of the last 20 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
  • Last 20, career runs: 2-3/3-8/4-6/5+-3
  • Layoff: 32/38 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off, '21 winner 33 days off); (35/38 5 weeks off or less)
  • 31/38 (82%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
  • 21/27 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
  • 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
  • 35/38 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
  • Favourite is 19/38 (50%)
  • "Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
  • 23/38 (61%) had NOT won at the distance
  • Baffert not won since 2007

 

8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (14 renewals to date)

  • US 12 Euro 2
  • 9/12 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
  • 13/14 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
  • 13/14 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
  • 14/14 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
  • Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 5
  • Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-3 ('21 winner off 47 days)
  • Prior Runs: US winners 2-8; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
  • 80+ Beyer – 9/12 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
  • 2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
  • Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California), last one was 2018. 3rd at 6/1 in 2021
  • 4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo (2nd in '22 MsG with Free Look)
  • All US exacta: 5/14 (US 1-3 in '21)

 

9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals so far)

  • 36/38 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
  • Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-7 (incl 5 in last 9 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6
  • Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
  • Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2021
  • 19 of the last 29 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
  • 18 of last 26 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
  • Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
  • (s) Synthetic track
  • Baffert won 5 times, Pletcher & O'Neill twice each

 

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (15 renewals to date)

  • Euro 9 US 6 (APO'B 1st Kee 2015, 2nd Kee 2020)
  • 2-6 runs (14/15 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-3/6-1)
  • 5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/9 Euro won at 1m
  • 1st-3rd Fav combined only 8 from 45 - 47% winners outside top 3 in betting
  • 15/15 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
  • 0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT, 1 MIDFIELD)
  • 7 of the 9 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; exceptions 108 LTO, 105 LTO
  • 9/9 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 6 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18, '21 winners won G3 LTO)
  • 6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
  • Euro winners 20-43 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
  • Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20
  • APOB 4, C Appleby 4, Gosden 3