Horse Racing Tips
Saturday 15th October Ascot Champions Day Horse Racing Tips and Trends
Trends matching horses below:
1:25 Coltrane @10/1
2:00 Art Power @11/2, Naval Crown @16/1, Rohaan @6/1
2:40 Eternal Pearl @5/1, Stay Alert @14/1
3:20 Jaddomi @9/1, Bayside Boy @25/1
4:00 Adayar @11/1, Dubai Honour @40/1
4:40 Rhoscolyn @16/1, Symbolize @16/1
Saturday's racing this week is at Ascot and its Champions day, a big day in the flat racing calendar. All six races are on ITV and this really starts to see the last few weeks of the flat season coming to a close. Its the final chance for the champions to be seen and its probably the last time we will see the big champion Baaeed race, he runs in the 4:00 Qipco Champion Stakes, which is a group one over 1m 2f. Baaeed however has to run against a strong field, not many horses seem to be have been scared off by him and connections are willing to take their chance against Baaeed rather than find another race. Its a field that included last years derby winner Adayar trained by Charlie Appleby. This is set to be a brilliant race with 9 runners, its good to see the other trainers been willing to take him on. Adayar does meet the trends for that race @11/2, he's also one of Frankels progeny, which as we know is never a bad thing. Coltrane kicks things off for us in the long distance race and is the only horse to match all of the trends, his price look pretty good also considering he beat Trueshan last time, we can't understand it still looks more to come from this horse hopefully. Trueshan falls down as he's a six year old now and they have tended not to have the best record. We have done the work to find the matches for all six races based on the trends. Hope you all enjoy the days racing, its a highlight on the flat racing calendar and remember the 4:00 Qipco Champion Stakes is not to be missed. Starting from next week we will be writing a weekly blog (sometime multiple blogs) which reviews the previous sports betting week with a big focus on horse racing and also the upcoming horse/sports betting for that week. It will feature insights and opinions, will be a lot of fun and hopefully insightful for you.
Ted Senior Analyst - smartbettingstats
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
1.25 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV
17/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
17/20 – Won at Listed or better class previously
16/20 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
15/20 – Won at least 5 times previously
14/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
14/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Aged 5 or older
13/20 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/20 – Raced at least 5 times that season
10/20 – Won their latest race
9/20 – Raced at Longchamp (4), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
9/20 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 11)
4/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 7)
2/20 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/20 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/20 – Ridden by Hollie Doyle (last 2)
2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 7)
Trueshan (11/1) won the race in 2020 and 2021
Since 2011: 6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 10
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
2.00 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
19/20 – Won over 6f previously
19/20 – Won at least 3 times previously
18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Raced at least 4 times that season
17/20 – Won at Listed or better class previously
16/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/20 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
15/20 – Won a Group race previously
14/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/20 – Raced at Haydock (8), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
11/20 – Favourites placed
4/20 – Won their latest race
4/20 – Favourites that won
2/20 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 7)
Creative Force (11/2) won the race in 2021
Since 2011: 4 of the last 11 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 11 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed in 4 of the last 11 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
2.40 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV
14/14 – Raced 3 or more times that season
13/14 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won at least 3 times previously
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/14 – Won over 1m4f previously
10/14 – Rated 110 or higher
10/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Aged 3 years-old
9/14 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
7/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/14 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 6 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2 of the last 8)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Eshaada (16/1) won the race in 2021
The last 7 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 11
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket
3.20 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV
19/20 – Raced at least 3 times that season
18/20 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
18/20 – Finished in the top three in their last race
18/20 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
18/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
17/20 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
16/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/20 – Won their latest race
10/20 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/20 – Won at least 7 times previously
9/20 – Favourites that won
7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/20 – Trained by John Gosden (4 in total)
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Since 1988 only 2 Filly winners (Persuasive 2017 & Minding, 2016)
The Revenant (5/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
3 of the last 8 winners were French-trained
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 11 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
4.00 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV
20/20 – Won at least 4 times previously
18/20 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
18/20 – Aged 5 or younger
18/20 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
17/20 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
17/20 – Won over 1m2f previously
15/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/20 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Raced at either Longchamp (6) or Goodwood (3) last time out
7/20 – Favourites unplaced
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Favourites
5/20 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/20 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5)
2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 5)
Sealiway (12/1) won the race in 2021
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
4.40 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV
Just 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/8 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/8 - Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/8 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
2/8 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/8 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/8 - Winning favourite
Escobar won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 10/1
Trainers William Haggas, Jessie Harrington, Roger Varian, David O’Meara (2), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 4 of the last 8 runnings
