Horse Racing Tips
Aintree Day 3 Saturday 15th April - Trends and Tips
The final day of the Aintree festival includes the Grand National at 5:15, the two trends matches in the Grand National have been backed from odds. of 20/1 and 22/1. In the 3:35 5 out of 5 horses who have won the race previously have gone on to win the staying hurdle again. So Sire Du Berlais is the horse tip here even though he's an 11 year old. All the trends and tips for the Grand National are posted below:
https://smartbettingstats.com/horse-racing-tips-sub/grand-national-trends-2023
1:45 Notlongtilmay 5/1
2:20 Outlaw Pete 12/1
3:00 Crambo 18/1, Springwellbay 10/1
3:35 Sire Du Berlais 13/2
4:15 Darrens Hope 16/1
5:15 Aint That a Shame 11/1, Vanillier 18/1
Aintree Horse Racing Trends
SATURDAY, 15th April 2023 (ITV/Racing TV)
1.45 – EFT Systems Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m
19/19 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
19/19 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
19/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
16/19 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
16/19 – Ran within the last 35 days
14/19 – Placed in the top three in their last race
12/19 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
11/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/19 – Won their last race
8/19 – Favourites that won
5/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/19 – Irish-trained winners
3/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 3 of last 11 runnings)
3/19 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 9 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 22 years and 4-from-5 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 5 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019 & 2022
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
20 of the last 27 (74%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
8 of the last 13 winners were French bred
10 of the last 14 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 23 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 25 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973
2022 Winner: Gentleman De Mee (7/2)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
3.00 pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV
18/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
16/19 – Raced 39 days or less ago
16/19 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/19 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
15/19 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/19 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
9/19 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (8 of the last 12 favs have won)
8/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/19 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 5)
2/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 11 runnings)
Ballymore Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
20 of the last 25 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
12 of the last 13 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
19 of the last 24 (79%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 16 (69%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 25 (64%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 18 (56%) runnings between them
7 of the last 12 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 26 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 33 years
10 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
2022 Winner: Three Stripe Life (5/2 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
3.35pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV
15/18 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/18 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
15/18 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/18 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/18 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
12/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/18 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
15 of the last 18 (83%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17 of the last 18 (94%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
14 of the last 18 (78%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 18 (78%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 13 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 13 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 5 from last 7 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 5-from-5
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
No winner older than 9 years-old
Just 2 winners rated below 155 in the last 18 runnings
2022 Winner: Sire Du Berlais (16/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
4.15pm – William Hill Freebooter Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV
14/19 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
16/19 – Had run within the last 35 days
14/19 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
11/19 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/19 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
11/19 – Unplaced in their last race
4/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Favourites that won
3/19 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 12)
2/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 23 winners were aged 10+
Only 4 winners carried more than 11st in the last 18 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 45 runnings
9 of the last 12 (75%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 15 winners didn’t win earlier that season
8 of the last 10 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 16 winners won last time out
2022 Winner: Sam Brown (28/1)
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball
5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV
- 30/31 – Officially rated 137 or higher
- 29/31 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
- 27/31 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
- 27/31 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
- 25/31 – Returned a double-figure price
- 24/31 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
- 24/31 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
- 24/31 – Aged 9 or older
- 23/31 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 19/31 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
- 19/31 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 20/31 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
- 18/31 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 17/31 – Placed favourites
- 17/31 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
- 15/31 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
- 12/31 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 12/31 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 16 years)
- 7/31 – Ran in a previous Grand National
- 7/31 – Won last time out
- 6/31 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
- . 3/31 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
- 2/31 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
- 1/31 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
2022 Winner: Noble Yeats (50/1)
Trainer: Emmet Mullins
Aintree Grand National Facts
- Since 1978, 134 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
- 18 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
- Only 3 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
- The just one 7 year-old or younger to win since back in 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
- 13 of the last 25 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
- No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
- 3 of the last 13 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
- 10 of the last 19 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
- 5 of the last 20 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
- Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 27 renewals (but 4 in the last 7 years)
- Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 36 years (80 have attempted)
- 23 of the last 25 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
- Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (19 Year)
19/19 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
17/19 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
16/19 – Had won over at least 3m previously
16/19 – Ran less than 50 days ago
17/19 – Officially rated 137 or higher
14/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/19 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/19 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/19 – Experienced the National fences before
7/19 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/19 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/19 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/19 – Won by the McCain yard
