Horse Racing Tips
Aintree Day 2 Friday 14th April - Trends and Tips
Aintree Festival day two trends and tips are below, the racing yesterday was very good to see with Shiskin and Constitution Hill both winning, which is great to see for horse racing. The horses below are the matches with the historical trends of the previous winners of the race. There are some nice prices to go at.
1:45 Gerri Colombe 8/11
2:20 Irish Hill 33/1
2:55 In the Pocket 4/1
3:30 Hitman 6/1
4:05 Upping the Ante 16/1, Numitor 28/1, Hardline 80/1
4:40 Howlingmadmurdock 50/1
Aintree Horse Racing Trends
FRIDAY, 14th April 2023 (ITV/Racing TV)
1.45pm – Air Charter Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f
19/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
19/19 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
16/19 – Aged 7 or younger
16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/19 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
15/19 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 9 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
9/19 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 5)
2/19 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 11 of the last 19 runnings between them
18 of the last 25 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (12) years-old
The last 19 winners were either French (7) or Irish (12) bred.
6 of the last 10 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
32 of the last 33 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
25 of the last 31 (81%) winners had won over at least 3m before
36 of the last 40 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
17 of the last 20 (85%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
21 of the last 23 (91%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
2022 Winner: Ahoy Senor (4/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
2.55pm – Poundland Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV
18/19 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
12/19 – Finished first or second last time out
12/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/19 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/19 – Aged 5 years-old
6/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 12)
5/19 – Winning favourites
20 of the last 23 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
17 of the last 25 (68%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
24 of the last 31 (77%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
The last 10 winners ran in bumpers
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 23 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 26 runnings
Just three Irish winners since 1978 (2 from 30 this century)
Irish have won just 4 of the last 45 runnings
10 of the last 22 (45%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 23 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 0-from-5
2022 Winner: Jonbon (Evs fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
3.30pm – Marsh Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV
18/19 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/19 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/19 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
16/19 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Aged 9 or younger
12/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/19 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
10/19 – Winning favourites
9/19 – Irish-trained winners
7/19 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
24 of the last 31 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
32 of the last 35 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
24 of the last 31 (77%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 27 (48%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
18 of the last 27 (67%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
24 of the last 31 (77%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
14 of the last 18 (78%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
28 of the last 31 (90%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
11 of the last 24 winners trained in Ireland
2022 Winner: Fakir D’Oudairies (10/11 fav)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
4.05pm – Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV
18/19 – Raced within the last 34 days
17/19 – Aged 10 or younger
17/19 - Didn’t win last time out
13/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/19 – Raced within the last 23 days
11/19 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
11/19 – Unplaced last time out
5/19 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Irish-trained winners
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 - Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of last 3)
2/19 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
5 of the last 8 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 9 winners between them
6 of the last 8 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 8 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 15 (53%) winners raced in last year’s race
11 of the last 16 (69%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 18 (67%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 29 (52%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (118 have tried) since 1994
2022 Winner: Mac Tottie (8/1)
Trainer: Peter Bowen
4.40pm – Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV
17/19 – Had run within the last 35 days
14/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
11/19 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
9/19 – Won their last race
5/19 – Favourites that won
3/19 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/19 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-9 (last 11 runnings)
14 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (93%)
22 of the last 26 (85%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 29 (72%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
14 of the last 28 (50%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
2022 Winner: Gelino Bello (7/2)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
