Horse Racing Tips

Aintree Day 1 Thursday 13th April - Trends and Tips


The first day of the Grand National meeting at Aintree racecourse, its a good days racing with some of the equine stars running, not least the big superstar Constitution Hill in the 2m 4f Aintree hurdle stepping up from 2miles. In the 14:55 Bravesmansgame is the pick ahead of Shiskin, the Aintree Bowl is a decent field. The trends resulted Bravemansgame and he is the pick which is backed up by running in the King George and Gold Cup.


2:20 Jipcot 100/1, Zenta 11/8

2:55 Bravemansgame 5/2

3:30 Constitution Hill 1/7

4:05 Cousin Pascal 50/1, Latenightpass 11/2

4:40 Defan 40/1


2.20pm – Jewson Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

16/19 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/19 – Placed in the top three last time out
13/19 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
12/19 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-7 since 2007)
4/19 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/19  - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (2 of last 4)
2/19 – Irish-trained winners
12/17 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
10/17 – Finished in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
13/17 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
13/17 – Ran at least 4 times over hurdles before
Horses rated 152+ are 8 from 8 (since 2007)
Just 3 of the last 21 winners were Irish-trained
French-bred horses have won 12 of the last 23 (52%) runnings – including 5 of the last 7
15/22 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/32 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

2022 Winner: Knight Salute (14/1)
Trainer: Milton Harris

 

2.55pm – Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

17/19 – Didn’t win last time out
14/19 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/19 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
11/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/19 – Aged in double-figures
6/19 – Winning favourites (5 of the last 6)
5/19 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
5/8 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
4/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/8 – Won that season’s King George
10 of the last 13 (77%) winners aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 12 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
Trainer Willie Mullins is 2-from-5 in the race
26/38 (68%) winners ran in that season’s King George
25/38 (66%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/25 (56%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 4 of the last 26 winners were Irish-trained
5 of the last 10 winners had headgear
9 of the last 12 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 29 (45%) renewals and 6 of the last 12 (50%)
6 of the last 11 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010

2022 Winner: Clan Des Obeaux (13/2)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

3.30pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

18/19 – Aged 8 or younger
15/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/19 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
10/19 – Irish-trained winners, plus 20 of the last 45
5/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (5 of the last 11)
23 of the last 28 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
14 of the last 28 (50%) winners trained in Ireland
31 of the last 45 (69%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
8 of the last 12 winners (67%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
13 of the last 16 winners (including last 10) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 21 (43%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
The last 14 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Just 3 winning outright favourites since 2000
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 33 runnings
Just 2 of the last 19 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won

2022 Winner: Epatante (2/1)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

4.05pm – Randox Foxhunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV

19/19 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 36 winners were younger than 9)
14/19 – Aged in double-figures
14/19 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
14 of the last 17 (82%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 8 runnings
5 of the last 8 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
20 of the last 29 (69%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
24 of the last 29 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 38 winners were aged younger than 9
23 of the last 29 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
11 of the last 17 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 13 of the last 20 (65%) renewals

2022 Winner: Late Night Pass (7/2)
Trainer: T Ellis

4.40pm – The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Carried 11-1 or less
14/19 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/19 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Unplaced last time out
10/19 – Aged 7 or younger
9/19 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Irish-trained winners
14 of the last 20 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18 of the last 22 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 14 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 16 of the last 24 (67%) runnings
20 of the last 22 (91%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 23 (30%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
7 of the last 8 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
6 of the last 7 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 and 4 placed horses

2022 Winner: The Last Day (12/1)
Trainer: Evan Williams