Tips will be posted for subscribers the day before
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY ONE:
Tuesday 16th March (Old Course)
1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2020 Winner: SHISHKIN 6/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses…..
- 21 of the last 24 winners won their last race
- 14 of the last 17 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
- 9 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the market
- 8 of the last 9 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
- 20 of the last 26 winners ran in the last 45 days
- Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 29 runnings
- 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 15 of the last 16 runnings
- Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 8 years
- 24 of the last 26 winners had raced that same calendar year
- Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 8 runnings.
Negatives…..
- Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 24. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
- Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
- We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
- Just 2 of the last 18 winners came here unbeaten
- Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
- Nicky Henderson is 2 from 39 since 1993 (Shishkin (2020) and Altior (2016) his two winners for this period)
2.10 – Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV
2020 Winner: PUT THE KETTLE ON 16/1
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Aidan Coleman
Pluses….
- 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
- 13 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
- 15 of the last 21 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase that season
- The last 11 winners won last time out (plus 16 of the last 20)
- 19 of the last 21 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
- 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 12 of the last 17 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
- 11 of the last 20 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
- Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
- Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 6 runnings (all French-bred)
Negatives…..
- Only 2 of the last 34 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
- Just 3 of the last 30 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
- Only 3 of the last 29 winners were older than 7 years-old
- The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
- The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
- Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
- 5 year-olds are 0-12 in the last 12 years
- Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2020 Winner: THE CONDITIONAL 15/2
Trainer – David Bridgewater
Jockey – Brendan Powell
Pluses….
- 16 of the last 21 winners were officially rated 143 or less
- 15 of the last 20 came from the top 4 in the betting
- 17 of the last 21 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
- 15 of the last 20 were novices or second season chasers
- 7 of the last 13 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
- Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 20 runnings
- 9 of the last 18 won last time out
- Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
- 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
- 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
- 9 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
- Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
- All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
- 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
Negatives….
- Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 10 of the last 16 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2020 winner, The Conditional, carried 10-6
- Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 49 to even get placed
- Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
- Only 2 winners in the last 12 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
- Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
- The Irish have won just 2 of the last 52 runnings (since 1967)
3.30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2020 Winner: EPATANTE 2/1 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty
Pluses….
- 31 of the last 37 won last time out
- Horses unbeaten that season often do well (8 of last 10)
- The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 18 of the last 22 runnings between them
- The Irish have won 13 of the last 22 runnings
- Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 11 (9 in total)
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 runnings
- 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 12 of the last 22 winners had won at the Festival before
- 23 of the last 36 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
- The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 13 runnings)
- 14 of the last 25 winners started as flat horses
- Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 4 years
- 6 of the last 12 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
- 5 year-olds are just 2 from 105 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
- Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-29 in the last 37 runnings)
- Just 1 of the last 14 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
- Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 4 from 30, but last year’s winner – Epatante – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
- Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
Key Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Betting Trends
17/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
15/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Rated 159 or higher
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Had finished in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race the season before
13/18 – Had won 6 or more times over hurdles before
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/18 – Irish-bred winners
10/18 – Irish trained winners
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or more
8/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/18 – Ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle
6/18 – Had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival the previous season
4/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 8 times in all)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 8/1
Other Champion Hurdle Stats:
5 year-olds are just 3 from 106 since 1985
31 of the last 37 winners won their previous race
23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the top 4 at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival
22 of the last 25 winners had a race that calendar year (i.e we are looking for horses that have run in 2020)
27 of the last 30 winners hailed from the first 6 in the betting market
Just 4 of the last 30 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone onto win the Champion Hurdle that season
Irish-trained horses have won 13 of the last 22 renewals
Champion Hurdle – UK vs Ireland (Last 23 Years)
13/23 – Irish-trained winners
10/23 – British-trained winners
4.10 – Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV
2020 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE 9/4
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- Follow Irish-trained mares (11 of last 13)
- The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 11 of the last 13 runnings
- 7 of the last 13 favourites have won
- 12 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m4f
- Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 12 winners
- Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
- Novices generally do well
- 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
- 6 of the last 9 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
- Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
- Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
- 11 of the last 13 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
Negatives….
- Avoid front-runners
- British-bred mares are currently 0-78 (only 7 have been placed)
- All 28 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
- Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
No ex-flat horses have won the race yet
4.50 – Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV
2020 Winner: ARAMAX 15/2
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh
Pluses….
- 10 of the last 16 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
- French bred horses have a good record
- Respect Fillies
- 7 of the last 10 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
- 11 of the last 16 had run in the last 25 days
- David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
- 6 of the last 9 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
- 10 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 12 of the last 16 winners were rated between 124-134
- 8 of the last 13 winners were British-trained
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 11 runnings
- 11 of the last 16 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
- Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
- Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 33 between them
- Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
- Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
- No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
- Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 1 from the last 11 years
- British-bred runners are currently 0-51
5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
2020 Winner: RAVENHILL 12/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd
Pluses…..
- 11 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- Favourites have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
- 4 of the last 10 winners were top-rated
- 5 of the last 10 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
- 7 of the last 14 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
- 7 of the last 11 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
- Note horses wearing headgear
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 145 (or more)
- Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
- Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
- Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 15 rides)
- Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 10 (3, Codd, 2 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
- Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 8 runners
Negatives….
- 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – he’s currently 0 from 18
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
- Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
- Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 9)