1:20 – Soaring Glory 9/1

1:55 – Shiskin 8/15

2:30 – Nietzsche 28/1

3:05 – Honeysuckle 7/4

3:40 – Concertista 11/8

4:15 – Hell Red 40/1

4:50 – Ofallthejoints 40/1

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY ONE:

Tuesday 16th March (Old Course)   

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2020 Winner: SHISHKIN 6/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

• 21 of the last 24 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 17 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 8 of the last 9 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
• 20 of the last 26 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 29 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 15 of the last 16 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 8 years
• 24 of the last 26 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 8 runnings.

Negatives…..

• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 24. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 2 of the last 18 winners came here unbeaten
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
• Nicky Henderson is 2 from 39 since 1993 (Shishkin (2020) and Altior (2016) his two winners for this period)

2.10 – Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2020 Winner: PUT THE KETTLE ON 16/1
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 15 of the last 21 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase that season
• The last 11 winners won last time out (plus 16 of the last 20)
• 19 of the last 21 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 17 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
• 11 of the last 20 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 6 runnings (all French-bred)

Negatives…..

• Only 2 of the last 34 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 30 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 3 of the last 29 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-12 in the last 12 years
• Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2020 Winner: THE CONDITIONAL 15/2
Trainer – David Bridgewater
Jockey – Brendan Powell

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 21 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 15 of the last 20 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 17 of the last 21 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 were novices or second season chasers
• 7 of the last 13 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 20 runnings
• 9 of the last 18 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 6 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting

Negatives….

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 10 of the last 16 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8. The 2020 winner, The Conditional, carried 10-6
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 49 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
• Only 2 winners in the last 12 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 52 runnings (since 1967)

3.30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2020 Winner: EPATANTE 2/1 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 31 of the last 37 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (8 of last 10)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 18 of the last 22 runnings between them
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 22 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 11 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 runnings
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 22 winners had won at the Festival before
• 23 of the last 36 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 13 runnings)
• 14 of the last 25 winners started as flat horses
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times, including 3 of the last 4 years
• 6 of the last 12 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 105 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-29 in the last 37 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 14 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 4 from 30, but last year’s winner – Epatante – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975

Key Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle Betting Trends

17/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
15/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Rated 159 or higher
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Had finished in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race the season before
13/18 – Had won 6 or more times over hurdles before
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/18 – Irish-bred winners
10/18 – Irish trained winners
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/2 lengths or more
8/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/18 – Ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle
6/18 – Had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival the previous season
4/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 8 times in all)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 8/1

Other Champion Hurdle Stats:
5 year-olds are just 3 from 106 since 1985
31 of the last 37 winners won their previous race
23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the top 4 at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival
22 of the last 25 winners had a race that calendar year (i.e we are looking for horses that have run in 2020)
27 of the last 30 winners hailed from the first 6 in the betting market
Just 4 of the last 30 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone onto win the Champion Hurdle that season
Irish-trained horses have won 13 of the last 22 renewals

Champion Hurdle – UK vs Ireland (Last 23 Years)

13/23 – Irish-trained winners
10/23 – British-trained winners

4.10 – Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2020 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE 9/4
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

• Follow Irish-trained mares (11 of last 13)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 11 of the last 13 runnings
• 7 of the last 13 favourites have won
• 12 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 12 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 9 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 11 of the last 13 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 0-78 (only 7 have been placed)
• All 28 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners

No ex-flat horses have won the race yet

4.50 – Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2020 Winner: ARAMAX 15/2
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 16 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• Respect Fillies
• 7 of the last 10 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 16 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 9 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• 12 of the last 16 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 13 winners were British-trained
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 11 runnings
• 11 of the last 16 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

• Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 33 between them
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 1 from the last 11 years
• British-bred runners are currently 0-51

5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

2020 Winner: RAVENHILL 12/1
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses…..

• 11 of the last 19 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• Favourites have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
• 4 of the last 10 winners were top-rated
• 5 of the last 10 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 7 of the last 14 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 7 of the last 11 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• Note horses wearing headgear
• 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 15 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 10 (3, Codd, 2 Mullins, 2 O’Connor)
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 8 runners

Negatives….

• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – he’s currently 0 from 18
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 9)