Here are my BTTS (Both Teams To Score) value picks for Wednesday, 1 October 2025. I’m keeping this simple and human: quick reasons you can sanity-check, the price range I’m seeing, and how confident the model is versus the market. As always, odds move—treat these as a starting point, not gospel.
Today’s BTTS short list BTTS value picks
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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Newcastle United (UEFA Champions League) — BTTS Yes
Model: 73.6% vs Market: 55.3% (edge +18.3%) • Guide price ~1.72 -
Norwich City vs West Brom (Championship) — BTTS Yes
Model: 66.8% vs Market: 54.2% (edge +12.6%) • Guide price ~1.73 -
Bayer Leverkusen vs PSV (UEFA Champions League) — BTTS Yes
Model: 70.8% vs Market: 60.3% (edge +10.5%) • Guide price ~1.60 -
QPR vs Oxford United (Championship) — BTTS Yes
Model: 57.0% vs Market: 51.7% (edge +5.4%) • Guide price ~1.86
Why these four? BTTS Value Picks
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Newcastle — BTTS Yes
Two proactive sides with decent set-piece threat and a tendency to leave space when they push. The numbers have bothteams’ scoring rates comfortably above 1.0 xG, and minor defensive absences tilt things a touch further toward BTTS. Feels like a game where one goal wakes it up.
What would change my mind? If one team puts out an unexpectedly conservative XI (three out-and-out DMs, say) or if rain + heavy pitch is worse than expected.
Norwich City vs West Brom — BTTS Yes
Championship chaos in the best way. Norwich are usually good for creating chances at home, and West Brom aren’t shy about trading shots. The model doesn’t see either back line dominating, so both to score is the cleanest angle.
Watch-outs: Late attacking injury on either side would nudge the probability down. Check lineups.
Bayer Leverkusen vs PSV — BTTS Yes
Front-foot vs front-foot. Leverkusen’s wide rotations create loads of cut-backs; PSV are slick in transition. Even if one scores early, the other has enough punch to reply. Model BTTS Value Picks has this north of 70% before kick.
If you prefer safer prices: Pair BTTS with a “No Red Card” side bet if your book offers it; chaotic reds can kill good BTTS spots.
QPR vs Oxford United — BTTS Yes
Smaller edge, but still a tick in our favour. Neither defence grades out as a “lockdown” unit and the expected goal split is close enough that we only need an average game state to get there.
Pass if: You only bet bigger edges. This one’s more “portfolio filler” than headline play for BTTS value picks.
Staking (if you must)
BTTS is swingy. If you use Kelly, try half-Kelly or cap stakes around 2–3% of bankroll per bet. I’m happier spreading smaller stakes across multiple edges than going heavy on one.
Final notes BTTS Value Picks
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Re-check lineups 30–60 minutes before kick-off. A surprise striker benching or a late defensive return can shift the edge.
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Prices are snapshots; shop around. A few ticks on the odds can make or break value on BTTS.
