BTTS (Both Teams To Score) Value Betting — Where the Edge Lives
BTTS value betting — What We Found
- Sweet spot: BTTS YES with model edge ≥ 10% and odds in the 1.85–2.20 window.
- Backtest result: 882 settled bets → +37.84u profit, 4.29% ROI, 54.65% win rate.
- Performance is strongest in a handful of leagues (see the league stats below).
- Want today’s picks? The daily BTTS Beast — Value YES selections are in Platinum Bets.
How We Tested BTTS value betting
We analysed our resulted BTTS dataset and filtered for selections where the model’s BTTS-YES edge was at least 10%.
We then restricted pricing to the 1.85–2.20 range and settled every bet using full-time scores (flat 1u stakes).
The idea was simple: isolate a realistic price band and see whether the model’s edge actually translates into profit.
Headline Result BTTS value betting
In total, 882 settled bets qualified under the edge ≥ 10% and odds 1.85–2.20 rules. BTTS value betting that produced:
- Profit: +37.84 units
- ROI: +4.29%
- Win rate: 54.65%
Where the Pricing Works Best
When we split prices into 0.05 bands, a few pockets stood out:
- 1.85–1.90: strong contribution and healthy win rate.
- 2.05–2.10: excellent return (with slightly smaller volume).
The takeaway: the lane from 1.85 to 2.10 is the engine room. Extending to 2.20 is fine, but expect fewer bets.
League Snapshot (Edge ≥10%, Odds 1.85–2.20)
Here are a few leagues that contributed positively in this window. This isn’t an iron-clad rulebook—just a helpful map of where the model’s signal has converted well:
| League | Bets | Win % | Profit (u) | Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy Serie B | 36 | 63.9% | +10.09 | ~2.01 |
| Croatia 1. HNL | 17 | 70.6% | +7.77 | ~2.08 |
| Japan J1 League | 7 | 100.0% | +6.90 | ~1.99 |
| Spain La Liga | 58 | 53.4% | +5.54 | ~2.05 |
| Brazil Serie A | 10 | 70.0% | +4.51 | ~2.05 |
| Brazil Serie B | 4 | 100.0% | +4.50 | ~2.13 |
| Greece Super League | 32 | 53.1% | +3.29 | ~2.06 |
| England Premier League | 9 | 66.7% | +3.06 | ~2.02 |
| China CSL | 7 | 71.4% | +2.81 | ~1.95 |
| England League One | 25 | 56.0% | +2.71 | ~1.97 |
How to Use This
- Filter first: take BTTS value betting only when the model edge ≥ 10%.
- Price discipline: target odds in the 1.85–2.10 lane (extend to 2.20 if you want more action, but expect thinner volume).
- Lean into the right leagues: prioritise competitions that typically play well with this profile (see table).
Today’s Picks
If you want the actionable shortlist each day, the BTTS Beast — Value YES feed is available in
Platinum Bets.
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