Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric used in soccer (football) to evaluate the quality of goal-scoring opportunities in a match. It is a way to quantify the likelihood of a particular shot or goal-scoring attempt resulting in a goal based on various factors. xG is used in both analysis and scouting to assess a team's or player's performance and to provide a more data-driven perspective on the game.
The concept of xG takes into account several key factors to determine the probability of a shot being converted into a goal:
1. Shot location: The distance from the goal and the angle from which a shot is taken are crucial.
2. Shots taken from closer range and from better angles are more likely to result in goals.
3. Shot type: Whether a shot is taken with the foot, head, or other body part can affect its accuracy and success rate.
4. Defensive pressure: The number and positioning of defenders around the shooter can influence the difficulty of scoring.
5. Passes leading to the shot: The quality of the build-up play, including the type of passes and assists, can affect the xG value.
6. Historical data: Historical statistics from thousands of similar shots in past matches are used to assign a probability of success to the current shot.
These factors are often used to calculate a number between 0 and 1, with 1 indicating a near-certain goal and 0 indicating a very unlikely goal. For example, a one-on-one chance with the goalkeeper from a few yards out might have a high xG value close to 1, while a speculative long-range effort with several defenders in the way might have a very low xG value close to 0.
xG is a valuable tool for evaluating player and team performance. It helps to identify which players are creating and taking high-quality scoring chances and which teams are defending well. It's also useful for identifying trends over time, assessing whether a team or player is overperforming or underperforming their expected goals, and making tactical decisions based on data. It's widely used in modern football analysis and has become an essential part of the sport's analytics.
Ted (Senior Analyst) - smartbettingstats