Premier League Kick Off

Premier League Kick Off

Salah, Nunez or Diaz.......

Let's start by recapping all the goings on from last week. The trends at Glorious Goodwood tipped up 16/1, 14/1, 7/4, 6/1, 14/1 & 25/1 winners and also 8 places, once again a really good showing. The way we pick the trends is just filtering through how many trends the horses match then flagging up the horses that match the most, if more than one matches the most we post all the top matches. We do not filter any further after that with our own emotional thought. You can either take what the trends result as matches or look further in to the shortlist if multiple selections are produced. It's the best way in racing to pick winners we believe. Comanche Falls was a good winner to end Glorious Goodwood on, the 25/1 winner who also won last years Stewards Cup was only 2lb higher and in a similar draw, it had clearly been laid out for the race by running not up to standard and lowered its mark ready for this years renewal. All in All a great week. 

The championship kicked off its season on Friday with Burnley winning 0-1 away at Huddersfield, Josh Cullen looked to be pulling the strings in centre midfield and Vincent Kompany looks to have made a shrewd move bringing him with him from Anderlecht. Cullen was a West Ham player as a youngster and in his early twenties, so they clearly were reluctant to get rid of him leaving it until he 24 when his contract ran out. You can tell by watching him he is classy and see's all the passes. It's good news as we fancy Burnley for the league along with Coventry and Luton. Other league selections below.

Data Science picks for the leagues - based on 1000+ stats of previous winners for the season prior to the winning the league

Championship - Burnley, Coventry and Luton

League One - Derby, Oxford and Accrington

League Two - Swindon and Mansfield

National League - Chesterfield, Notts County and Solihull 

This week see's the start of the Premier League, the biggest and best league in the world. Man City have Haaland and Liverpool have signed Nunez, anyones guess at the moment who will come out on top. It's interesting that they have both opted for tradition number 9s rather than the attacking midfield/forward type middle man. Maybe they have seen something in the evolution of strategy and tactics, my guess with Man City is the deal was too good to pass up. The bookies price Haaland @11/4 and Nunez @12/1 for top scorer, Nunez scored on Sunday off the bench and Haaland missed some easy opportunities but still looked very dangerous. They weren't misses from someone who looked rubbish in the game, he played well so we can ignore those. 

For the Smartbettingstats Premier League Golden Boot bet we are going to look elsewhere and back Luis Diaz each way @40/1 1,2,3,4 places, he will play the majority of the game and his price is a lot higher than Salah @9/2 (who he plays on the opposite side too) and Nunez @12/1. Diaz made a great impact after coming half way through the season in January, looked very dangerous. he scored 14 goals in 18 games before leaving Porto last season. Salah and co might take the focus of the opposition freeing up more opportunity for Diaz, with all the assisting opportunity through the team including Alexander Arnold this is a great bet. 

Luis Diaz Golden Boot EPL @40/1 1,2,3,4 places

We thought we'd refresh everyones memory from last season and post some stats of teams and players. Enjoy! 

Some player stats below of a selection of players from last season.

full_name	full_name	last_name	goals_involved_per_90_overall	min_per_goal_overall	assists_per_90_overall
Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro	Cristiano Ronaldo	dos Santos Aveiro	0.77	137.0	0.11
Harry Kane	Harry	Kane	0.72	190.0	0.25
Edward Nketiah	Edward	Nketiah	0.65	165.0	0.11
Philip Foden	Philip	Foden	0.59	237.0	0.21
Alexandre Lacazette	Alexandre	Lacazette	0.55	447.0	0.35
Michael Olise	Michael	Olise	0.55	568.0	0.4
Alexandre Lacazette	Alexandre	Lacazette	0.55	447.0	0.35
Michael Olise	Michael	Olise	0.55	568.0	0.4
Odsonne Édouard	Odsonne	Édouard	0.52	261.0	0.17
Jesse Lingard	Jesse	Lingard	0.51	178.0	0.0

Team stats sorted by BTTS %

Team	Position	Home Adv	BTTS %	Over 2.5 %	XG For	XG Against	Over 2.5 Cards %
Leicester City	8	16	68	63	1.41	1.76	66
West Ham United	7	4	63	58	1.51	1.66	50
Southampton	15	18	61	58	1.52	1.61	61
Manchester United	6	18	58	50	1.69	1.6	63
Leeds United	17	-3	58	66	1.5	1.83	87
Newcastle United	11	16	55	47	1.24	1.67	71
Everton	16	25	53	55	1.25	1.71	66
Aston Villa	14	2	53	58	1.45	1.49	82
Brentford	13	8	53	58	1.42	1.65	55
Crystal Palace	12	17	50	50	1.22	1.46	71
Chelsea	3	-18	50	53	1.96	1.14	71
Watford	19	-10	50	55	1.01	1.79	68
Burnley	18	6	47	37	1.21	1.81	61
Brighton & Hove Albion	9	-7	47	34	1.53	1.49	74
Arsenal	5	22	42	58	1.86	1.35	68
Liverpool	2	18	42	63	2.46	1.03	55
Manchester City	1	1	39	61	2.54	0.83	57
Tottenham Hotspur	4	8	37	58	1.65	1.51	84
Norwich City	20	1	37	61	0.94	1.99	61
Wolverhampton Wanderers	10	-6	37	37	1.06	1.65	71

Referee stats over 2.5 cards % and % of matches refereed that were btts 

Ted Senior Analyst - Smartbettingstats