Arc 2025 trends: Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe data-led preview (+ Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar)

If you’re hunting for Arc 2025 trends in plain English, this is it. I’ve distilled the last eight runnings of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (12f / 2400m) into clear angles and mapped them to this year’s field. Quick links: see the Arc racecard, our draw guide, and trip distances (what is 12f?). For official info: France Galop, Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar.

Arc 2025 trends: full Longchamp profile & top pick

Race: Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) — 3yo+ (no geldings), turf
Where/When: Longchamp, Paris — Sun 05 Oct 2025, 3:05
Top Trend Horse: Kalpana — Score 76.0 | Matched 12/23 | Bet365 9/1 | Sample 8
See full runners on the Arc racecard.

What typically wins the Arc? A proven Group 1 horse, won last time out, prepped 21–29 days ago, comfortable at 12f / 2400m, drawn stalls 3–8, and ridden by a professional jockey (no claim). Those are the clearest Arc 2025 trends.

Complete Arc trend sheet (last 8 runnings)

• 8/8 – Highest Pattern Win = Group 1
• 8/8 – Last Run Distance (f) between 10 and 12
• 8/8 – Previously won at same distance
• 8/8 – Ridden by professional jockeys (no claim)
• 7/8 – Last Run Position between 1 and 1 (won LTO)
• 7/8 – Previous Wins Count between 3 and 8
• 7/8 – Previously won at same course
• 7/8 – Wore no headgear
• 6/8 – Aged between 3 and 4
• 6/8 – Days Since Last Run between 21 and 29
• 6/8 – Draw between 3 and 8
• 6/8 – Last Run Class = Unknown
• 6/8 – SP Dec between 2 and 8.3
• 6/8 – Weight (lbs) between 128 and 131 (≈ 9st 2lb–9st 5lb)
• 4/8 – Male horses (Colts or Geldings)
• 3/8 – Female horses (Fillies or Mares)
• 2/8 – Jockey = Cristian Demuro
• 2/8 – Jockey = Frankie Dettori
• 2/8 – Last Run Class = Class 1
• 2/8 – Last Run Course = Leopardstown (IRE)
• 2/8 – Last Run Course = Longchamp (FR)
• 2/8 – Trainer = J-C Rouget
• 2/8 – Trainer = John Gosden
• 1/8 – High SP Dec outlier = 14.1
• 1/8 – High SP Dec outlier = 73
• 1/8 – High SP Dec outlier = 8.3
• 1/8 – Unknown or other sex categories

Why Kalpana fits: ticks the biggest boxes—G1 on the CV, 12f aptitude, recent win, right 21–29 day cadence, pro jockey. If the stall draw lands between 3–8, that’s another strong green flag. Want more context? Check our Trends glossary and how we score trends.

Ascot — BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap, 7f)

Off: Sat 04 Oct 2025, 3:35
Top Trend Horse: Purosangue — Score 85.0 | Matched 12/18 | Bet365 16/1 | Sample 9
Race details: Ascot Challenge Cup card · Course: Ascot

• 9/9 – Male horses (Colts or Geldings)
• 8/9 – Days Since Last Run between 14 and 43
• 8/9 – Last Run Distance (f) between 6 and 8

Newmarket — BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1, Fillies & Mares, 1m)

Off: Sat 04 Oct 2025, 2:40
Top Trend Horse: Blue Bolt — Score 100.0 | Matched 13/24 | Bet365 15/2 | Sample 10
Race details: Sun Chariot card · Course: Newmarket

• 10/10 – Female horses (Fillies or Mares)
• 10/10 – Ridden by professional jockeys (no claim)
• 9/10 – Aged between 3 and 4
• 9/10 – Previously won at same distance

Redcar — William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed)

Off: Sat 04 Oct 2025, 3:20
Top Trend Horse: Isle Of Fernandez — Score 92.0 | Matched 12/24 | Bet365 13/2 | Sample 10
Race details: Two Year Old Trophy card · Course: Redcar

• 10/10 – Aged 2
• 10/10 – Ridden by professional jockeys (no claim)
• 10/10 – Wore no headgear

How to use these Arc 2025 trends (sensible caveat)

Trends are filters, not finish orders. Blend them with the going, final draw, pace maps, and market signals before you bet. For live updates, refresh the racecards hub and check official info at France Galop.